Friday, June 24th, 2016

Brexit.. What it means for Britian politically and economically

Narada Desk | June 24, 2016 1:23 pm Print
Brexit will have a domino effect on economic and political fronts of the United Kingdom
British Exits, European union, plebiscite, referendum

The immediate result of  Brexit will  see that British government and the European Union start negotiations for the terms of British departure. The negotiations may take some years, even may go up  to two years as some experts say. The consequences of British exit from the European union would definitely have far reaching impact domestically and globally.

Article 50 of the treaty of the deals with the procedures for a member state to withdraw from EU. For the process to be set in motion the member state need to notify the group about its intent to withdraw. The referendum is not a notification. Britian may notify when the EU countries meet for a summit on June 28 and June 29.

The economic consequences of Brexit

After Britian invokes the article it can start negotiation with EU on  various agreements that replaces the current one. There are some economic experts who say that Britian could negotiate and access EU market without being a member of that economic block. They cite the example of Norway, which though not a member of the group is abiding by many of the stipulations put forward by the EU, in return for favourable access to the market. But all this depends on the domestic political condition also. If Cameroon government falls and a euro skeptical prime minister takes over EU may not be willing to have a favourable negotiation.

But the most widely expressed concern is that the severing ties with the EU will push the British economy into recession. This apprehension has resulted in the fall in the price of the pound and stock market down fall.

Some experts say the Brexit and  a tough negotiation with EU could make the British economy smaller even 7.5% in 2030.

Brexit and Domestic politics 

It was to mollify the right wingers who campaigned against the immigration, that David Cameroon agreed to have a referendum on whether to continue with EU or not. He himself was against Brexit and campaigned against it. But many of his cabinet colleagues were on other side. They stood for Brexit. Now they have won, the pressure on Cameroon will be high to quit office. He has earlier said whatever be the result he would continue to be the prime minister. But things may change and a new conservative government is a possibility. Or it could even lead to new election. But now he has told that he is stepping down, thus paving the way for a new conservative leadership.

There are about 1.2 million Britons living in other European Union countries. The membership in EU allows citizens to travel among the member nations freely with minimum paper works. Once UK walks out of the EU then the situation will change making the lives of expat British citizens life difficult.

Another consequence some sceptics predicting is the disintegration of UK.  United Kingdom made up of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted differently in the referendum. Many of these ‘nationalities’ are not easy with ‘English’ domination. Scotland has voted in favour of the EU in the referendum. There is a possibility that they may ask for another referendum on whether to stay with UK or not.  This argument is rejected by the Brexit supporters saying that the Scotland independent movement is no longer a force to reckon with.

Britian’s decision to leave EU may prompt some other member countries to follow suit. If this happens that will begin the disintegration of the economic block started in 1993.

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