Wednesday, September 21st, 2016

Will it be Trump or Clinton to win the race to White House?

Narada Desk | September 21, 2016 12:50 am Print
As both candidates are polarising figures with baggage galore, it’s likely to be a doozy of an election should the two be matched. That said, there are many factors that could change things: the economy, for starters, along with scandals and gaffes, terrorist attacks, and the results of the FBI’s email investigation.

The clash of election seems to be touching the high note now. The discussions and supporting elements are still vague about the winner. Conflict of ideologies and some neo marketing strategies for the election purpose is happening with all effective mechanisms. Both have got their own image and image baggage trouble. In one area, Trump may getting a chance of winning the heart of new voters and at the same time his STYLE of convincing and maintaining the connection with people getting lost. Hillary have that legacy of senator grade and that gives a booster element in her race.

This thread analyses the chance of opponents:

Could Donald Trump, an anti-establishment populist with no political experience, beat Clinton, a seasoned politician with years in office as New York Senator and US Secretary of State? The answer is, it’s possible.

Indeed, at this stage very little is outside the realm of possibility. There are  some solid arguments for both Clinton and Trump.

Clinton could win for the following reasons:

  • Moderates make up an important segment of America’s voting base–about 40 percent. Since Trump’s message is especially alienating to those in the middle, moderates are more likely to go for Clinton.
  • Trump is the most negatively viewed candidate in history with 67 percent of voters holding unfavorable views, as opposed to Clinton’s 54 percent unfavorability, which is still quite high
  • The factors that fueled Trump’s rise in the primaries are not necessarily applicable to a general election, in which we will see Trump attacked ruthlessly from all sides.
  • During the GOP debates, there was a lot of agreement in sentiment and fear of party alienation—Democrats won’t hesitate to call him out on sexism, bigotry, and any other number of isms to sway undecided voters.
  • 87 percent of Latino voters have a negative view of Trump, as do 80 to 90 percent of black Americans and 70 percent of women. Without these demographics, it’s next to impossible to flip crucial swing states like Florida from blue to red.
  • Today, President Obama’s favorability is at a three-year high, the economy is growing, and personal satisfaction has risen, creating a solid climate for a Democratic candidate.

However, certain elements give Trump an edge:

  • Obama ran a historic campaign that drew young people and minorities to the polls in record numbers. Without his charisma or the promise of hope and change, Clinton is unlikely to measure up.
  • Trump’s anti-establishment platform is the bread and butter of blue collar Americans spanning party lines, and his primaries yielded an unprecedented turnout that cannot be ignored. It’s the type of revolution Bernie Sanders wished he had.
  • Though Trump’s favorability among Republicans is middling at best, his resonance with the country’s white middle class, anti-establishment types, and angry working class may make up for it.
  • The only thing that may make up for Clinton’s favorability among Democrats is the fear of a Donald Trump presidency, and the #BernieorBust movement makes it clear that even that won’t entice some progressives. If women and minorities don’t turn up for Clinton like they did for Obama, she could truly be in trouble.
  • Trump is a natural antithesis to Obama and progressive movements like Black Lives Matter; he would be a natural fit in America’s long history of reactionary politics